No single aspect of a National Football League game will cause a point spread to move as much as an injury, particularly to a quarterback. Take yesterday morning for example, in an early workout new Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw a pass and then grabbed for his back on the right side and went down on the field.

His status for Sunday’s opener in Pittsburgh is up in the air.

The books figure he is out, or at least tried to get in front of the wise guys taking Pittsburgh now that Tua is perhaps sidelined with a quick line shift.

Before the reports left the Falcons camp the point spread shifted from the Steelers favored by three points to them favored by four. An hour later, when news had spread on the injury, the line moved up the 4½. This morning, the line is five.

If Tua is actually out? Is the line move pointing to a winner?

His replacement in the Falcons backfield is veteran Cooper Rush. He was signed in 2017 as an undrafted free agent quarterback by the Dallas Cowboys after four college years at Central Michigan. He made 14 starts for the Cowboys and won nine of them. He spent last season with the Baltimore Ravens where he lost his only two starts for John Harbaugh.

While Rush is not a franchise quarterback, he has proven to be a reliable backup capable of managing a game to a victory for his team. In that way he is not unlike Drew Lock, who replaced an injured Sam Darnold early in the Seahawks Wednesday night win over the New England Patriots.

While it appears on paper that if the Falcons are without Tua they will have more trouble winning in Pittsburgh, the jury is out on that decision. What the Falcons gain in motivation for the loss of their starting quarterback can often make up for losing the talents of the starter. And let's not forget that Rush is not replacing a proven franchise quarterback, but a recent castoff who didn’t live up to his perceived potential after being the first-round choice of the Miami Dolphins in 2020.

The wise guys got information on Tua’s injury before it was widely reported and made a quick decision to take the Steelers giving the three points before the rush to Cooper. I don’t believe line moves for an injured player should always lend to going against the team with the injury. In fact, I think the injury to Tua, if he is unable to play on Sunday, actually helps the Falcons cause motivationally and now they get an extra two points on the spread.

A worse case scenario for the Falcons would be that Tua is doubtful based on the injury and then on Sunday is able to go. What happens motivationally in that situation is that the team is pumped to make up for his loss and ready to overcome the perceived obstacle. Then when he can play, the team falls flat thinking that they now don’t need that extra effort with their starter back behind center.

Bottom line, I don’t recommend jumping with the crowd due to an injury.

I am much more interested in finding a team that is uncertain of their starting quarterback who is capable and buoyed by his team’s focused effort. We get that in Minnesota where the Vikings will host their NFC North Division rival Green Bay Packers.

Kyler Murray, who won the Heisman Trophy in 2018 and was the first overall draft selection of the Arizona Cardinals in 2019, will make his debut with his new team on Sunday when the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers. Murray was expected to battle J.J. McCarthy for the Vikings starting role, but as is often the case, McCarthy has taken himself off the field with an injury.

Murray has also been plagued by injuries during his NFL career, but the best time to back the one-time Oklahoma star is early in a season before his body takes too much of the punishment the NFL dishes out.

The Packers, who lost their final five games last season including their only playoff contest after Micah Parsons was sidelined with an injury, are still without the talented defender. Parsons will miss at least the first four games this year.

The Packers are also without their top runner, Josh Jacobs, who has been suspended by the league. On Thursday, Jacobs pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor battery charge, was fined, and the criminal-damage charge was deferred under an agreement. However, the NFL has not removed him from the exempt list, so he remains out for the Vikings opener.

The Vikings know that this is the moment to get a jump start over one of their division’s primary rivals, and Murray is scheduled, by my charts, to get off to a rousing start in his Minnesota career.

Qoxhi Picks: Minnesota Vikings (-1½) over Green Bay Packers