Who benefited based on the just completed preseason and who took a step back according to the numbers in Las Vegas?

Three teams took big steps forward, a couple absorbed significant drops. The Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Commanders and Jacksonville Jaguars all had their win total for the season jump a game. The Bengals are up to 10½ wins, the Jaguars 9½ and the Commanders 8½. All a full game added now from when the preseason opened.

The Bengals also had their Super Bowl odds drop from 20 to 1 to the numbers now posted on them winning Super Bowl LXI to 18 to 1. Obviously, they see that Bengals Quarterback Joe Burrow appears healthy and ready to lead his team back into the playoffs. Some of the anticipated success for the Bengals can also be attributed to two of their opponents in the AFC North Division dropping in expectations, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.

The two teams that took the biggest hits on their odds for win totals based on preseason play are the Green Bay Packers and aforementioned Browns. Their win totals have dropped a full game with the Packers now set at 9½ and the Browns 5½.

Mike Tomlin ended his 19-year run as head coach of the Steelers following their loss to the Houston Texans in the playoffs last January. Tomlin has a record that will likely never be broken, in his 19 seasons with Pittsburgh he never coached a losing campaign. His replacement, Mike McCarthy, who held the same position previously with the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys, is looking to extend the Steelers consecutive winning seasons.

We don’t think so.

The Steelers, known foremost for their stout defense during Tomlin’s years, ranked 17th in points allowed last season and 26th in yards allowed. This year, the Steelers are not only still vulnerable on defense, but they are counting on quarterback Aaron Rodgers to lead their offense. The once terrific signal caller is well past his prime at age 42 and will turn 43 during the season. Given his recent history, the chances of him surviving the wars of the NFL to still be on the field when he turns 43 in December is less than 50/50.

Tomlin won every season he coached the Steelers, we anticipate McCarthy losing a majority of his games in his first season at the helm while two of his division opponents, the Baltimore Ravens and Bengals, appear much stronger entering 2026.

The Kansas City Chiefs look to rebound from their six-win campaign in 2025. The collapse for Andy Reid’s three-time Super Bowl winning squad really began in the 2024 season. Somehow the Chiefs got through that season and into the Super Bowl with the luck of a kid running home in the rain and not getting wet. Their narrow win after narrow win in their most recent Super Bowl campaign ended with a thud when they were dominated by the Philadelphia Eagles in Roman Numeral LIX.

Now, a roster that is a year older at key positions and with Patrick Mahomes looking to return after suffering a season ending injury late in 2025, this does not stack up to be a particularly strong campaign for Reid and his troops. Their 10½ win total projection is much more a tribute to their longstanding greatness but fails to take into account where this team is right now.

The Dallas Cowboys are an interesting prospect in 2026.

Last season, in Brian Schottenheimer’s first year as head coach, the Cowboys defense was the worst in football in terms of points allowed. The only team in the league that averaged surrendering more than 30 points a game. They also were 30th in yards allowed and lost five straight point spread decisions and four games straight-up to close out their 2025 season.

Not credentials one would look for to expect good things in 2026.

But the Cowboys hung together as a unit last year despite their difficulties, found a way to win seven of their seventeen games while also tying one. The disappointing season last year looks more like a springboard to something special for Jerry Jones’ team than a precursor to more disappointing results.

The Cowboys posted win total for this season is 9½, which seems high, but I suspect the books have it that high to attract under wagers for the number of games Dak Prescott and company are going to win this year.

I like the chances of the Cowboys winning double-digit regular season games this season.

In all, we have six teams that line up for win total wagers this year. Three overs and three unders. They are:

Denver Broncos over 9½

Dallas Cowboys over 9½

New Orleans Saints over 7½

Kansas City Chiefs under 10½

New England Patriots under 10½

Pittsburgh Steelers under 8½