Two teams that had tough starts to their 2025 seasons that were in great part due to injuries were the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. After six games, the Ravens had only one win and after the same number of games, the Texans had only two wins.
Both teams had the potential of turning their seasons around.
The Ravens followed their disappointing start with five straight wins that had them catch the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North Division standings. The Texans are chasing an Indianapolis Colts team in the AFC South Division that has a better record than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 6 and 5 this year, the Colts are two games better with eight wins in 11 decisions.
So, the fact that the Texans opened this week with the same record as the Ravens didn’t provide them a share of first place in their division, but left them in third place behind both the Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. Climbing out of a hole can take a lot out of a National Football League team, in the Ravens case it led to a loss this week at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Why did the Ravens lose on Thanksgiving? The Bengals are not the better team but the drive to get to the top of their standings after a one and five start was a motivational boost for the Ravens. Once that objective was reached, the team had a collective let down.
The Texans move up in the standings is not yet complete. Their drive from a horrible start is still in action, and this week they get to move up against the team they are chasing at the top of their division standings.
But, you say, the Colts are one of the best teams in football. They have scored a league high 341 points. True, and their high scoring offense and points allowed gives them a plus 112 on the points for and points against chart.
The Texans have scored 98 less points than the Colts, but on the defensive side of the ball half that deficit is covered by a defense that has given up 47 less points this season. In other words, the Colts have the better record and better offense, but the Texans have clearly the better defense and a huge motivational edge with the need to cut into a two-game deficit.
In other words, if the Colts lose this game they still lead the Texans by a game, while a win bulges their lead over DeMeco Ryans’ squad to three games.
In this AFC South Division battle I’ll lean to the better defense with the greater need for a win with the benefit of them returning their starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud, after he missed the last three games in concussion protocol. Given the public loves offense, for the opportunity of betting on the home team in this encounter they have to lay more than a field goal on the point spread.
Add it all up, and I think the underdog wins this game straight-up.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (+3½) over Indianapolis Colts