Three games that most football fans agree are the best slate of games on Thanksgiving in history are on tap today and tonight. We’ve got intriguing teams and division leaders in key games, two of them division battles and a marquee contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs.
Now, good games all from a fan perspective, but my numbers come up without a clear wagering choice on any of the contests. I can give you conflicting reasons to take the home or visiting team in all three games, so I will.
Off the top, the Lions looked initially to us as the best play of the day, but numbers rolled in last night as we canvased the Nevada sports books that generally agreed with our assessment of the Lions over the Packers.
Here is why Detroit looks like the side. They lost on opening day to this same Green Bay team at Lambeau Field. A division revenge game between comparable teams usually goes the opposite way from the first meeting. Edge Lions.
The books invited Detroit money, opening this game with the Lions favored by a seemingly short line of 2½ points. Why didn’t they open it with the Lions favored by at least a field goal, which the line grew to after the public came in on this game with nearly eight of nine wagers backing the home team.
Do you see my concern here? The books invited Detroit action, got it, and then moved the line up to where it by most accounts should have opened. The books know what they are doing, and they want the public betting on the Lions, which eliminates me from taking that side.
Rule number one is not giving the books what they want.
So, take the Packers here?
I still like the mechanics favoring the home team and don’t want to overreact but certainly are not going to forget the first rule and continue with a wager on the Lions.
The second game, the Cowboys hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at AT&T Stadium, has the elements of seeing how much better the Cowboys have become since they lost to the Arizona Cardinals to open November. It appears the Dallas defense has gotten better quickly with their trade deadline dealings and a couple key players returning from the injury list.
Their offense, triggered by Dak Prescott, who is having one of his good seasons, has not been a problem this year. Coupled with suddenly a stout defense, Dallas is a threat against anyone, as evidenced last week with their dramatic come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Chiefs, conversely, are in the midst of a very unlikely campaign for Patrick Mahomes and company. They too required a comeback last Sunday to pull out a win over the Indianapolis Colts to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive with their sixth win in 11 decisions. If Kansas City in 2025 is no better than just a notch above average, as their record would suggest, then Dallas could come up with a big home win here although a playoff slot for Brian Schottenheimer’s squad is likely not in the cards this year.
Do the Chiefs win a must game, or does Dallas continue on their current winning run with a third straight victory?
If the Chiefs lose here, and they are on the road in a short work week, then we may witness the end of their dynasty. Want to bet on them dropping out of primary position for a playoff run? See, this one is tough to call too.
Finally, we get the likely return of Joe Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals lineup, he has been out of action since suffering a toe injury in second week action. The Bengals were 2-0 after that second week game but have won only one of their last nine games and the offense, even without Burrow, has not been the primary reason for their decline.
The biggest problem in Cincinnati is a defense that stops opponents like a screen door shields wind. They have allowed a league worst 360 points this season and even with Burrow it is questionable whether his play could outscore what their defense allows.
But, before jumping to the Ravens side, know this. Baltimore lost five of their first six games while Lamar Jackson was sidelined for most of the setbacks and other injuries on the defensive side of the ball created all sorts of problems for the John Harbaugh coached squad. Still, many thought when Jackson returned and the defense got healthy the Ravens could still make a serious drive to the playoffs.
Five weeks later, mission accomplished. Five straight wins with Jackson running the offense has propelled the Ravens into a first-place tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North Division.
Now, the problem with the Ravens, while Burrow will likely return tonight, Jackson is questionable to start and if he does, a series of nagging injuries will certainly not allow him to play with the fervor he is known for.
The problem with betting against Baltimore because of Jackson’s injuries and on Cincinnati with the return of Burrow is that Burrow doesn’t play defense … which is reason to skip a play on the underdogs in Baltimore tonight.
See, I told you. Great games, but no solid wagers.